Number 3 in points per game allowed in the NFL. Number 8 in yards allowed per game. All this in a defensive coordinator’s first year. Most of the time they would keep their job for years to come. Not in Steve Wilks case.
The 49ers claimed that Wilks “was not the right fit.” Also, fans are saying the defense regressed under Wilks. He was still a top 5 defense this season which is not a far regression at all.
His major faults came during the postseason, where the 49ers let up on average 150 rushing yards per game and let teams convert on 50% of 3rd downs. We are going to take a look at the final drive of Steve Wilks’ career as a 49er defensive coordinator.
Andy Reid a Genius or Bad Play Calling From Wilks?
The first play I want to look at is the 4th and 1 during the overtime drive. Earlier in the game during the third quarter the Chiefs had a big play running zone read with Mahomes. Andy Reid went back to it and did it again on probably the biggest play of the game.
The 49ers got the Chiefs in a favorable situation getting them to 4th and 1. If the 49ers stop them the game is over and they win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs came out in a tight bunch right. Meaning 3 wideouts including Travis bunched right and a tight end to the left. Isaiah Pacheco was to the right of Mahomes in shotgun.
The 49ers came out in a 4-2-5 with a 2 high look. Meaning 4 down lineman, 2 linebackers, and 5 defensive backs. The 2 high shell in that situation I do not like. They are not the Chiefs of old who can not run the ball and only stretch the field deep. The Chiefs had a very good rushing attack this year. The 49ers were out numbered because of the 2 high safety look.
The 49ers seemed like they talked about and prepared after the big play earlier in the game. They had Nick Bosa still play the back. They brought the nickel in to play Mahomes. But the big issue Andy Reid added a wrinkle to the play.
He added a return motion to the flat with Travis. Now since the 49ers were outnumbered on the right they had no one to cover Travis in a route and Mahomes if he ran the ball. The nickel had to take Travis and Mahomes had an easy first down.
Yes, Andy Reid’s play call was genius, but Wilks did not put his defense in the best situation with running a 2 high shell and it cost them in the numbers game.
The Play that got Wilks Fired
The next play I want to go over is the 3rd and 6 to Rice that got a big gain. The 49ers have the Chiefs behind the sticks again. I like the second down call from Wilks. The Chiefs were in a tough spot, 2nd and 14. Wilks sent 6 guys on a blitz and 5 to guard the sticks which was a great call from Wilks.
Either the 49ers get a sack and make it 3rd and forever or Mahomes has to throw it quick and short and have it third and long. Mahomes completed it to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for an 8 yard gain. Exactly what the 49ers wanted and making it 3rd and 6.
Now 3rd down comes, the Chiefs come out in bunch right and have a running back in for protection. The 49ers have 7 guys on the line and 4 guarding the sticks. Looking like pressure again, and the Chiefs were ready for pressure.
They had a great pass protection setup, right guard and tackle both take the 2 rushers on the right. The running back comes over and picks up Fred Warner. Now that leaves 3 blockers for 4 defenders on the left. The center, left guard, and left tackle took the most inside threat.
Seeing the Chiefs ready for the blitz, you would surely think the linebackers would drop into underneath coverage. Nope instead Wilks sends 7 GUYS!!! Makes no sense they did not even disguise the blitz at all. Even Tony Romo said, “No they shouldn’t have done that.” You just sent 6 on the play before too. This call might have been when the 49ers wanted to fire Wilks.
Because of the bad call by Wilks, it leads to an easy first down completion to Rice. This was a big blunder by Wilks. He did the same thing earlier in the season against the Vikings that let up a touchdown. They lost by 5 in that game so that play was huge. This proves that Wilks did not learn from his mistakes and when you play against great quarterbacks like Mahomes, you have to change up your tendencies and disguise what you are doing.
The Last Play of the Game
This is the play of the game that put the nail in the coffin for Steve Wilks’ career as a 49er. If magically his defense stopped the best team in the NFL in goal to go situations, then he still might have a job. We all know the result, his defense didn’t, he lost his job, and we got to see Taylor Swift kissing Travis Kelce.
The Chiefs came out in bunch right, Coach Reid really saw something in bunch right. The 49ers were in a 4-3 defense with a robber safety, they had Fred Warner on a QB spy, and the other defensive backs and linebackers were manned up.
It was a pretty good call by Wilks. Having a spy on Mahomes because the biggest plays in the game so far were with Mahomes legs. The safety robbing any slants or crossers was great too, especially on the goal line. Wilks was not prepared for the return motion.
Return motion on the goaline should have been the number one thing they should have repped and studied. They used it in the biggest play in the 2022-2023 Super Bowl against the eagles for the game winning touchdown. Malcolm Butler after he got his game winning pick against the Seahawks he said he was prepared for the pick because they repped the Seahawks favorite goal line pass play everyday.
Now Andy did a great job of showing this play in a different formation. BUT this is the NFL, they should have made a plan for the return motion before the game and repped it.
My personal opinion is the defensive backs should have banjoed, meaning the corner takes the first outside guy and the safety/linebacker takes the first guy inside. The nickel could have pressed Travis and the corner and linebacker could have just worried about the other two receivers.
If Hardman ends up motioning all the way across and does not return, now you have the backside corner to get him in the flat. You still have that safety to rob any inside route. Is this perfect, no, I do not have over 20 years of coaching experience like Wilks. But it seemed like they did not have a plan for the play and it should have been studied and repped everyday at practice.
Should Steve Wilks have been fired?
No I do not think Wilks should have been fired. He still had a top 5 defense which is hard to do. I think the biggest issue was his and Kyle Shanahan’s relationship. Throughout the season you could see Shanahan not being happy with Wilks and his calls in crucial situations.
With almost 30 years of experience in coaching in the NFL and D1 programs, he can be a good coordinator somewhere. If Steve Wilks gets a job next year I would not be surprised. Maybe like the 49ers said, “he was not the right fit for the 49ers.”
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References:
https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/2023-nfl-defense-rankings-team-pass-and-rush-stats
https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/why-did-49ers-fire-dc-steve-wilks-heres-what-we-know
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Wilks
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38857788/49ers-dc-steve-wilks-unfazed-critics-built-this
https://www.mlive.com/betting/2024/02/money-losing-bets-for-super-bowl-58.html